Eta has been downgraded to a tropical depression as it continues to fall apart over Honduras. Eta will degenerate into a remnant low pressure area on Thursday.
Beyond that is when things get confusing and complicated. Will the remnant low pressure area regenerate into a tropical storm if it moves back over the warm Caribbean waters? That’s definitely possible.
There’s a lot at play that will likely cause this forecast to be uncertain and fluctuate multiple times into the weekend.
On the one hand the water is plenty warm enough for a tropical storm to reform in the Caribbean, but on the flipside this area of low pressure is very disorganized now after going over the tall mountains in Central America.
Based on the evidence we see right now it looks like the conditions will be favorable for a storm to regenerate south of Cuba this weekend. Steering currents are weak and it will try to move north. However, the same High Pressure giving us breezy winds right now will stand in the way of allowing any future storm to just keep moving northward. Instead, any future storm would likely slow down and maybe even get pushed back westward. That’s why you’re noticing that curve in the forecast track.
Then beyond that point it gets even more unclear. If the storm were to stay between Florida and Cuba it could thrive over warm water, but if it drifts northwest into the Gulf it would likely run into cooler water and stronger wind shear that would work against the storm.
So as of right now it’s a wait-and-see type of forecast.
Regardless of the exact storm details we’ll have an increase in humidity, cloud cover, and rain chances this weekend into early next week
Stay with us for later updates, and watch our Tropical Updates each hour at :49
