Official US Covid-19 death count could be an underestimate, study says

Colombia surpassed 100,000 cases of novel coronavirus Wednesday, according to the country’s health ministry.

The ministry reported a record 4,163 new cases in the past 24 hours, bringing the country’s total to 102,009. 

Colombia also recorded 136 new fatalities, bringing the death toll to 3,470. 

The Latin American country has seen a new peak this week in its average number of reported cases and deaths in a seven-day period, according to a CNN tally.

People’s individual decisions to stay put likely helped slow the spread of coronavirus, even before state stay-at-home orders were implemented, a study published Wednesday in the Lancet finds.

Researchers used cellphone data to track movement patterns for 25 US counties with high coronavirus rates between January 1 and April 20 to evaluate how social distancing affected the rate of new infections.

They found that social distancing measures and the slow of coronavirus were primarily driven by changes in individual behavior and local regulations, noting that state and federal regulations were implemented either too late or not at all.

Individuals moved around less in all 25 counties six to 29 days before statewide stay-at-home orders were implemented. In 21 counties, mobility slowed on an individual level even before local stay-at-home orders were in place, Dr. Lauren Gardner of Johns Hopkins University and colleagues reported.

From late January to mid-April, people reduced their daily movements by varying amounts — from 35% of normal in New York City to 63% of what was usual in Houston’s Harris County. It took about nine to 12 days, on average, for the effects to begin showing, consistent with the incubation period of the virus.

Gardner’s team said the strong connection between social distancing and decreased transmission rates means that a return to normal mobility around the country creates a significant risk of increased infections – one that will likely not be apparent for up to three weeks after mobility increases.

The study did not differentiate among low-risk trips, like going to the park, and higher-risk trips, like going to the grocery store. Because the data did not include sociodemographic information, the researchers could not isolate information about older adults, those with medical disorders and underserved communities, for whom social distancing can be more difficult.

Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez is expanding the mandatory mask order in the county, according to a statement from his office.

Gimenez said he would sign the order later tonight which will require masks in all indoor and outdoor public spaces. 

The current fines for violating an emergency order remain in effect; up to $500 and/or up to 180 days in jail, the mayor said.

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The number of coronavirus deaths in Brazil surpassed 60,000 on Wednesday, according to the country’s health ministry.

The ministry reported 1,038 new Covid-19 fatalities in the past 24 hours, bringing Brazil’s death toll to 60,632. 

Brazil also reported 46,712 newly confirmed cases Wednesday, a large daily increase but still not a record for the country’s daily figures. The highest number reported in a 24-hour period for Brazil happened on June 19 when the ministry reported 54,771 new cases. 

Brazil has 1,448,753 confirmed Covid-19 cases as of Wednesday, the second highest number of cases worldwide.

The US can turn the resurging coronavirus pandemic around, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious disease expert, said during an interview with NPR Wednesday afternoon.

“It does not have to be 100,000 cases a day,” Fauci told host Mary Louise Kelly.

“I used that number because I wanted to jolt people,” to get their attention, he added.

Some context: Fauci testified before a Senate committee Tuesday that without intervention, such as mask-wearing and social distancing, the US could see as many as 100,000 new Covid-19 cases a day. The country is seeing almost 40,000 new cases a day already.

Some states, including Florida and Texas, which are seeing record numbers of new Covid-19 cases daily, were some of the first to begin reopening in early May.

“What we saw, and it really varied from state to state, were people congregating in bars, congregating in crowds in a celebratory way, understandably because they felt cooped up, without wearing masks,” Fauci said. “It’s a violation of the principles of what we’re trying to do and that is the social distancing, the wearing of masks.” 

Fauci, the director of the National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said he believes the US can reduce the numbers again, back to levels seen in March and April.

“But we have to do things a bit differently,” he said. “When we talk about the goal of everyone to proceed toward normalization by taking steps in the Opening America Again program, which are guidelines that have good and well demarcated benchmarks.”

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See Fauci’s prediction before the Senate: 

The US government said Wednesday it was investing in a project to create a patch that could monitor the symptoms of coronavirus patients and perhaps even catch early signs of infection.

The Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority said it had invested $656,000 in digital medicine company Sonica Health to develop a wearable monitor. “Sonica Health is utilizing a bio-integrated, wearable patch called ADAM. The flexible wireless patch is a thin device about the size of a band-aid and sits at the base of the throat,” BARDA said in a statement.

“The device monitors cough intensity and patterns; chest wall movements which can indicate labored or irregular breathing; other respiratory sounds; heart rate; physical activity; and temperature.”

BARDA said Sonica Health would integrate technology from Northwestern University spinoff Sibel Health to add continuous pulse oximetry and electrocardiography to measure heart activity and blood oxygen levels.

“In conjunction with Northwestern University and Shirley Ryan AbilityLab researchers, the team is creating and implementing a set of symptom-driven algorithms specifically tailored to catch early signs and symptoms associated with COVID-19 and to monitor patients throughout illness,” BARDA added. 

The goal would be a US Food and Drug Administration approved product, BARDA said.

Miami’s Jackson Health System is running out of a key drug for fighting Covid-19 because of a surge in cases, hospital officials said Wednesday.

The nonprofit hospital group paused elective surgery Wednesday because of the onslaught of cases and Jackson Health System’s head of infection prevention and antimicrobial stewardship, Lilian Abbo, said stocks of remdesivir were running low.

Some context: Remdesivir is the only antiviral that has US Food and Drug Administration emergency use authorization for coronavirus treatment. An average course of the infused drug requires six vials. The Florida hospital system has enough remdesivir to complete the treatment course for current patients, Abbo said.

“If we get to the point where the cases continue to double every two weeks, like what we’re seeing now, then we need to make sure that we have enough drug allocated,” Abbo said.

Hospital administrators are hoping to get more supplies later in the week, Abbo said.

Abbo urged the public to be proactive in mitigating Covid-19’s spread in Florida.

“The battle against Covid-19 cannot be only fought inside the hospital,” Abbo said. “This battle has to be conquered with every person taking action in the community.”

Gabrielle Ellison plans to keep her Texas bar open amid the Covid-19 pandemic, a decision that directly defies Gov. Greg Abbott’s order.

A group of bar owners across the state have joined forces to sue Abbott over the shutdown order.

“He’s picking and choosing winners and losers, so bar owners, they are being sentenced to bankruptcy. But if you’re a hair salon, if you’re a cosmetologist, if you’re a tattoo studio, if you’re a barber, you’re not just going to survive right now, you’re going to thrive,” said Jared Woodfill, the attorney representing the Texas bar owners.

Ellison maintained that her decision is motivated by a desire to support her employees.

“I care about them. This is not going to go away. We have got to learn how to live with this. And what I do care about is that children eat,” she said.

With the Fourth of July holiday just days away, Ellison is planning a special event, and pledges not to enforce any type of mask mandate.

“I am not going to make people do anything. I am not going to take their rights away,” she said.

Noting that people who are sick have the option to stay home, Ellison stood firm on her decision to remain open, a choice she sees as an American right.

“It is not the government’s right to take that choice away from us,” she said. “Why are we sitting down and letting this happen? What is wrong? …why are you giving your rights up?”

More than 2,000 new coronavirus cases have been reported in Los Angeles County for the fourth straight day.

Health Director Dr. Barbara Ferrer noted that “immediate action is necessary” in Los Angeles after reporting the county’s 2,002 new cases.

Ferrer will reissue health orders to comply with Gov. Gavin Newsom’s directive to close dining inside restaurants, museums, zoos and other activities.

She advised the public to steer clear crowds, confined spaces and close contact with other people.

By the numbers: Health care workers and first responders account for well over 7,000 of Los Angeles County’s 105,000 Covid-19 cases.

Roughly 45% of those work in nursing homes and 25% work in hospitals. More than 50 health care workers have died of Covid-19 in Los Angeles to date, Ferrer said. 

Testing locations throughout Los Angeles are at capacity and will not be accommodating new appointments, according to Health Services Director Dr. Christina Ghaly.

More tests will be available next week, she promised. Ghaly said there is no shortage of test kits, but holiday closures and increased demand are the reason for limited appointments.